You may ask yourself, ‘how can a guy living in Peru give an accurate preview of a basketball game with one team he’s seen precious few times this season (Minnesota) and the other team he hasn’t seen play at all (Texas)? And I would say to you-do you think I’ll do any worse than the likes of Medcalf, Reusse, and Barreiro?

If I sound a bit feisty, it’s because I am. The Golden Gophers have returned to March Madness! While Vincent Grier & the Lightly Regarded was a great tour in 2005, it was the Spirit in the Sky for the Dan Monson era-one hit and never to be heard from again. Minnesota’s entry into this year’s tournament feels like the first step in a new era for Golden Gophers basketball that points towards a long run of success.

So, while I’m very happy to see the Gophers in the tourney, why be satisfied with just arriving? I say we go Jackie Sherrill on the Longhorns, follow that up with a stake through the heart of the Blue Devils, then a skinning of the Wildcats, and finally taking the pink out of the Panthers. Yeaahhhh!

Now that I've channeled my inner Howard Dean, let’s break down this first round match up against the Texas Longhorns.


The Backcourt

A.J. Abrams’ career at Texas has existed largely in the shadows of bigger and flashier talent-LaMarcus Aldridge, Daniel Gibson, P.J. Tucker, Kevin Durant, and D.J. Augustin all garnered more attention and accolades than Abrams. In those shadows, Abram has been able to carve out one of the finest careers in Texas Longhorn’s history as he currently occupies 4th place on their scoring list with 1927 points and also claims the crown of the Big 12’s all time leading three point shooter. While his career will long be noted in the record books, one suspects that Abram’s senior season has been disappointing. Lacking the sublime talent that has joined him on the court in previous seasons, Abrams became the opponent’s primary focus and this lead to an erratic season. In Texas twenty-two victories, Abrams shot 47% from the field and 46% from 3 point range; in their eleven losses, Abrams shot 29% from the field and 28% from distance. He also was more of a gunner in the losses, averaging 16 attempts per game versus 12 shots per game when the Longhorns won. Abrams tendency to shoot and shoot some more when struggling tailed off as the season progressed, but he still is an amazing bellwether for the Longhorns success (or lack of it).

Dogus Balbay, the pride of Istanbul, Turkey, emerged as the starting point guard for the Longhorns midway through the season, but his ascension to the position appears to have been earned by default. Balbay isn’t an offensive threat (he hasn’t attempted a 3 point shot since December 13th and is 0 for 3 on the season), but he typically offers steady ball handling for the Longhorns and carries a solid 2.7/1 ratio on assists to turnovers ratio. If the Gophers are behind late and Balbay’s in the game, we may see Hack-a-Dogus; he is a 45% free throw shooter.

Justin Mason is the third guard in the starting lineup and the Longhorns top perimeter defender. Long described as a “glue guy”, Mason brings many positive attributes to the table-where he is lacking is in the ability to score. In conference play and against NCAA qualifying teams, Mason scored in double figures only three times (twenty-three games). If he is shooting, it’s likely from inside the three point line, as he shot only 20% from that range this season. Mason rebounds pretty solid from the guard position and can distribute the ball some, but his trial as starting point guard didn’t last. Mason will be another target for the Gophers at the end of games (53% on free throws) if they are trailing.

Varez Ward is the other guard who gets significant minutes for Texas, averaging about fourteen minutes per game. He is another non-shooter for the Longhorns and his contributions seem to be primarily as a steady ball handler who can actually hit free throws (70% on the season). If we see much of Ward, it probably means Texas is ahead at the end of the game.


The Frontline

Damian James is part of one of the most impressive recruiting classes of all-time. Along with current Longhorns Mason and Dexter Pittman, James arrived on campus with Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin, the 2007 Player of the Year and the 2008 consensus All American point guard, respectively. James is expected to continue the string of NBA first round draft choices from that class, currently projected as the #21 pick in the 2009 draft by nbadraft.net. James is a constant threat to post a double-double, something he has already done 11 times this season (including five straight in an impressive stretch in February). Standing 6’7” and checking in around 225 pounds, James is a relentless rebounder and tough match up problem for almost everyone that faces the Longhorns. That being said, James has been bit by the same bug as the rest of his teammates this season-inconsistency. He has put solid numbers up in points and rebounds virtually all season, but struggled getting his shots and staying out of foul trouble in losses to Kansas, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Baylor. He also joined another Texas trend this season by struggling from 3 point range, dipping from 41% to 32% from his sophomore to junior year. He had at least four fouls in 11 of the 33 games played, but seems to be able to play with foul trouble fairly well (except against Oklahoma, where he fouled out both contests in limited minutes). His Big 12 tournament was pretty inauspicious, averaging 9 points and 7 rebounds and struggling with foul trouble.

Gary Johnson is another curious case for the Longhorns. At times he has played like he is the best player on the squad, specifically when he has played our Big Ten brethren (averaged 18 points and 6 rebounds on 68% shooting against Michigan State and Wisconsin). Other games he is a non-factor, as has been the case down the stretch where his points and minutes have drastically fallen off. When he’s on his game, he is a thorn in the side, shooting at a high percentage and being a factor on the boards too. He matched Balbay by shooting 0 for 3 from three point range this year and has never hit a three pointer in college.

Dexter Pittman . . .guess what I’m going to say next? Yep, he’s had an inconsistent season. However, the big man (and we mean big, 6’10” 298 listed pounds) has finally emerged during his junior year as a threat, having shed enough weight to become very formidable and tap some of his considerable potential. If the Gophers see the Pittman who played in the first two games of the Big 12 tournament (average of 24 points and 15 rebounds), the Gophers will be hitting the Minneapolis clubs on Friday night. But that Pittman might not show. He’s struggled to stay out of foul trouble all season, and unlike James, he can get himself out of a game quick-earlier in the year he logged just 5 minutes against Notre Dame and 7 minutes against both Oregon and Baylor in games where he was in foul trouble. (although it should be noted that since he fouled out against Texas A&M on February 16th he has had only one game with four fouls and one game where he played less than 20 minutes-not coincidentally, he has played his best during this stretch). His dominant games have come against squads not featuring too much height either, although he did play Cole Aldrich to a standoff about ten days ago. He grabs nearly as many offensive rebounds as defensive rebounds and he is a solid foul shooter.

At the end of last season, Connor Atchley was being discussed as a possible NBA draft selection. It would seem that discussion is no longer happening. The 6’10” Atchley has had a gruesome senior season. His points per game have dropped from 9.5 to 4.8, his shooting percentage went from 54% to 40%, and his 3 point percentage sank from 41% to 29%. Points and playing time have decreased throughout the year and he had one game in double figures during conference play. Of all the Longhorns who miss D.J. Augustin, Atchley appears to be longing for him the most. That being said, let’s hope the Gophers don’t ignore him from behind the arc-if he gets some confidence, he might prove damaging from long range.


What Happens When the Longhorns Win?

A.J. Abrams is shooting a high percentage and not taking too many shots. Damien James is in double figures in points and rebounds. Gary Johnson is playing around thirty minutes and is able to get into double figures and makes his presence felt on the boards. Dexter Pittman is staying out of foul trouble. The Longhorns limit their turnovers to less than 15. They hit the offensive boards hard.

What Happens When the Longhorns Lose?

A.J. Abrams is harassed and trying to take matters into his own hands. Pittman and James are saddled with foul trouble. Johnson is getting around twenty minutes or less in the game. Post players for the opposition have a solid game. They turn the ball over more than 15 times.


What Do the Gophers Need to Do to Win?

Bring Down Big Dex – While the numbers seem to tell us that all a team needs to do is blanket A.J. Abrams, in the back stretch of the season Abrams has been better about not trying to force the action when it isn’t there. In Texas last three wins, Abrams has actually only averaged six attempts per contest. Those reduced attempts have coincided with the emergence of Pittman as a force down low. He was dominant in the first two games of the Big 12 tournament and poses big problems for the Gophers if he gets comfortable and stays out of foul trouble. However, I feel somewhat confident about the Gophers chances here-Pittman struggled against teams with formidable post players. I’m certainly not putting Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson on the same plateau as the likes of Blake Griffin, Luke Harangody, and Dante Cunningham, but Gopher fans could be hopeful that the combination of our two freshmen frustrate Pittman and squelch continuation of his recent strong play.

View A.J. in High Definition – While Abrams has increasingly accepted the role of decoy when necessary, it would be unwise to allow him to get free looks at the basket. He didn’t get to be the Big 12’s all time 3 point champ by doctoring the books. Whether it’s Lawrence Westbrook, Al Nolen, Devoe Joseph, Blake Hoffarber or one of our athletic forwards, Abrams should never feel comfortable on the offensive end.

Feed the Post to the Point of Indigestion – A consistent lament this season by Gopher fans has been the inability for our guards to throw entry passes into the post. Let’s hope that somehow, someway they figured it out in the past week or so. Here’s how Texas lines up along the front line: 6’10” and 298 pounds Pittman; 6’10” and 198 pounds (okay, I joke, but I’m in the ballpark) Atchley; 6’6” James and Johnson. You begin to understand why big games were had by many of the post players for the opposition throughout the season. Sampson, Iverson, Damien Johnson and Paul Carter all match up favorably in height and if one or two of these guys can have a strong offensive game, the likelihood of foul trouble for Pittman, James, or Johnson increases and the Gophers chances of winning increase with it. We want to see big minutes out of Clint Chapman and/or Matt Hill, back up post players for the Longhorns who played limited minutes this season.

Limit Damage on the Boards – Texas is a very good rebounding team and they have outpaced nearly all their opponents in this regard this season. Being outrebounded by them may be a given for the Gophers, but keeping it within a solid range, particularly in preventing the Longhorns from going crazy on the offensive glass, will be key. James, Pittman, and Johnson all are strong rebounders and Mason can be a force from the guard position, so our players will need to be dedicated against the onslaught.

Bring Back Louisville Al – Remember Louisville Al? That guy was so confident, so steady, so heady that Rick Pitino encouraged him at the post game press conference to transfer down to Louisville. That game was probably Al Nolen’s best as a collegiate, but unfortunately Louisville Al turned erratic when he turned into Big Ten Al. If Louisville Al can be tapped again, watch out Longhorns and watch out East bracket. If there will be a match up for Nolen to gain his confidence, you would think the uninspired duo of Balbay and Ward would be it. (Ohh and if Louisville Al could invite along Louisville Blake, that’d be alright too).

Hit Your Shots – As the Big Ten season has progressed, the struggles on offense have seemed to mount for the Gophers. The Gophers should be happy to see the Longhorns then. While they have had some stellar defensive efforts, this isn’t exactly the 1984 Georgetown Hoyas we’re talking about. Texas allowed 11 of their 23 conference and NCAA qualifying opponents to shoot 44% or better in their contests this season; to contrast, the Gophers allowed 7 of their 21 opponents to hit that mark. I’ve already explained how the Gophers might do some damage down low and if Nolen can create some open looks for the likes of Westbrook, Joseph, and Hoffarber, the long scoring funk could be discarded.

Jonathan Williams is Due – Not only do the Gophers probably lead the NCAA field in players averaging over 10 minutes per game at eleven, but I would also imagine that they lead the field in number of players who lead their team in scoring in a game this season-also eleven (Travis Busch shared top honors with Westbrook in Iowa). The talent is there and getting away from teams that are so familiar with the tendencies of each player should allow for some breathing room for the Gophers. Who will step into the fray and make it happen?

Bring Out the T.O. in the Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns tend to take care of the ball pretty well, but do have a magic number when it comes to turnovers and how it affects wins and losses. Looking at their games against conference and tournament qualifying teams, when the Longhorns commit less than 15 turnovers in a game they are 13-3; more than 15 turnovers in a game and they slide to 1-6.

Hopefully the Gopher coaches have been absorbing tape from Texas’games versus Kansas State this season. The Wildcats split their two games against Texas this season and nearly swept the Longhorns. The secret of their success was an average of 21 turnovers per contest. The Big 12 tournament game which saw Kansas State shoot 29%, get outrebounded 38-30, and get dominated by Pittman was a three point win for the Longhorns, thanks to 22 turnovers forced by the Wildcats.


Enough talk, do the Gophers win this game?

Minnesota has an excellent chance to win this game. While the frontline of Pittman, James, and Johnson are formidable, the Gophers more than held their own against Louisville’s Samardo Samuels, Earl Clark, and Terrence Williams, who comprise one of the top frontlines in the nation. The Gophers did so without Paul Carter at full strength who should be a great asset in this game. In fact, Carter could be the key defensively in this game. If he can match up effectively with James, it may allow Damian Johnson to spend some time guarding the perimeter, specifically A.J. Abrams. If you recall the drubbing the Gophers put on Illinois at Williams Arena, Johnson spent a great deal of time guarding Demetri McCamey, clogging Illinois’entire offense.

I also believe the Gophers can take advantage of the match ups in this game. Texas starts three guards along with Pittman and James. If Johnson and/or Carter can handle defending the Texas guards (and I think they can), Rick Barnes will likely give Gary Johnson a lot of minutes, meaning either Mason of Balbay will be spending time on the bench. If it’s Mason, Texas loses its best perimeter defender; if it’s Balbay, they lose their primary ball handler.

Along with the advantage Johnson and Carter may present, I also think Sampson and Iverson can offset Pittman rather well. Pittman’s standout performances have typically been against teams that can’t match his size. He struggled mightily against the likes of Oklahoma and Michigan State, teams that can throw a lot of height and physicality at you. Between Sampson’s athleticism and Iverson’s physical play and both their length, I think Pittman may be frustrated by our young duo.

The Gophers’ chances of winning will likely come down to how effective our guards play. I’ve detailed the inconsistency of Texas’ players this season, but our backcourt defined the word this year. Texas’ backcourt, especially if Mason is out of the game or guarding a forward, offers Nolen, Westbrook, Joseph, and Hoffarber the chance to regain some confidence. Abrams and Balbay are smaller guards who should be a welcome respite from the likes of Travis Walton, Chris Kramer, Chester Frazier, etc. that Nolen and the rest have faced in the Big Ten this season. Texas doesn’t create a lot of turnovers, so it will be imperative for the Gophers to eliminate the careless turnovers that plagued them during Big 10 play.

Another key that works to the Gophers favor is the lack of three point shooters for Texas. For a strong defensive team whose Achilles’ heel is defending the three point line, this draw is perfect-as long as they always, always, always account for A.J. Abrams. It is absolutely stunning that five of the eight rotation players for Texas (Pittman, Mason, Johnson, Balbay, and Ward) have combined for 9 three point baskets the entire season, which equals Damian Johnson’s output for the season. Even though he has struggled mightily this season and is playing limited minutes, the Gophers need to be very cognizant of Atchley when he enters the game, as he has been quite effective from distance in the past and could offset some of the Gophers match up advantages if he’s hitting his shots.

Finally, I like the depth of the Gophers. In addition to the players I have already mentioned, I think either Devron Bostick or Jamal Abu Shamala could provide a spark on offense in this game. Mason and Balbay are limited offensively and sure to log big minutes. Tubby might be able to hide Bostick or Abu Shamala on defense against these guys a bit and their height should allow for some favorable scoring opportunities on offense.

I think the Gophers will win this game and it won’t even require a perfect game (unlike the Louisville game). It will require a strong showing from either Sampson or Iverson, or both. It will also require a steady performance from Nolen at the point and whoever matches up against James will need to keep him from dominating on the boards. And of course, guard Abrams from the moment starting introductions are made. If the Gophers do these things, they will be playing on Saturday to get into the Sweet Sixteen.

Prediction: Gophers 74, Texas 69


Odds & Sods

Devoe vs. Bevo – An interesting subplot could develop in this game. For those who recall Devoe Joseph’s recruitment, signing day was anxiety provoking for Gopher fans. Indications were strong that the Gophers would ink Joseph, but a flurry of late rumors and speculation had Texas swooping in late and whisking Joseph away. Obviously that did not come to pass, but the late push by Texas was real and strong. It sure would be nice to see Joseph bust out for a big game against his former suitors, wouldn’t it?

Another victory over Wisconsin – The contest between Minnesota and Texas pits the 4th and 6th largest universities in the nation against each other (according to enrollment numbers for Fall 2008). The combined enrollment for the two universities exceeds 101,000 students. The next largest match up is between Florida State and Wisconsin who combine for over 79,000 students.
Never? Never Ever? Never Ever Ever? – Amazingly enough, this is the first game ever played between Minnesota and Texas. Not only that, Tubby Smith has never coached against Texas in his career. This is particularly eye-opening when you consider that Texas has played UW-Stout (during the 1977-78 season) and the Gophers have faced nine other programs from the state of Texas in their history.

Keep on Streakin’
• Tubby Smith is 2-0 against Rick Barnes, all time.
• The Gophers are 2-0 while playing NCAA tournament games in Greensboro (1989 versus Kansas State and Siena)
• In fourteen trips to the NCAA tournament, teams coached by Tubby Smith have won at least one game thirteen times.
• In those fourteen trips, teams coached by Tubby Smith have reached the Sweet Sixteen nine times (three times with Tulsa and Georgia over the course of four trips)

Big State, Big Talent – Texas is in exclusive company with Duke, North Carolina, St. John’s and UCLA as the only universities to have multiple winners of the Wooden Award, Kevin Durant (2007) and T.J. Ford (2003)

Timbuk3 Stated it Best – While Minnesota is excited about one of the top recruiting classes in the nation for 2009, Texas is making their claim for the best class in the nation, lead by shooting guard Avery Bradley (#10 overall ranked by scout.com), wing forward Jordan Hamilton (#13), and small forward Shawn Williams (#44). If these two programs end up meeting in the future, one would expect it to be deeper in the tournament with the upgrades in talent on the horizon.


Talk about the Gophers – Longhorns matchup on Gopher Basketball message board.